Seminar - Whether or Not; More or Less? The manifold applications of partition entropy

School of Mathematics and Statistics Research Seminar

Speaker: Roger Bowden (Kiwicap Research Ltd)
Time: Wednesday 21st October 2015 at 02:00 PM - 03:00 PM
Location: Cotton Club, Cotton 350
Groups: "Mathematics" "Statistics and Operations Research"

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Abstract

Dichotomous (either/or) outcomes are obvious in socio-political life (referendums, elections etc.), but are tacitly embedded in many other contexts. Partition entropy measures the ex ante uncertainty of outcome against its ex post collapse to an observed result. Entropic shifts can be used to model progressive probabilities as information accumulates. Recent research has developed and applied the framework to a range of diverse contexts: a new metric for income inequality, opinion polls, data smoothing & edge correction, mark scaling, non -parametric distribution metrics, and financial risk management . The toolbox can be used not just as a measurement or descriptive basis, but to establish decision making rules and algorithms. The talk, scoped for generalists, will be illustrated with contextual applications.

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